Will the
election of Ruth Davidson
as the Scottish Tory leader herald rocky times ahead for the Party?
A mere six
months ago she was elected to Holyrood as a list MSP, that is – she got there
on the “top-up” vote rather than the “first passed the post” preference. Now she
leads the Party.
Launching an
attack on Alex Salmond
in her inaugural First Ministers Question Time, she certainly didn’t set the
heather on fire. Choosing to continue with this week’s anti-independence mantra
about the Euro and timing of the referendum.
Using the word “feart”
came over as a bit patronising. We will all be listening for the first time she
lapses back into “frightened”.
Those who
supported her elevation to leadership in the belief that it would mean a new
approach from the Party already know that nothing has changed in that
department.
It was a case of
“new face”, “same old”.
She has made it
clear that the Scottish Tories will continue to be a loyal outpost at the fraying
edges of London Party’s empire.
She will of
course get an easy time from her old pals at the BBC
and it is doubtful that the rest of the media will be any harder on her. As long
a there is a referendum on the horizon she is unlikely to get it in the neck
from the broadsheets and as Labour see the Tories as irrelevant, even their flagship rag the Daily
Record might not bother her too much.
But can she count
on support from her fellow MSPs?
Well, the
majority didn’t vote for her. And she’s already had major problems forming her front
bench. Elected politicians don’t take kindly to the party telling them who
their boss is going to be and I don’t doubt there will be some on the back
benches who don’t like this one in particular.
There is an
argument that if the Party’s policies in Scotland
are not going to change it would have been better off with a more experienced MSP
at the helm.
Ruth
Davidson has come from nowhere and risen to
the top very quickly. There are many around her who, although their knives are
sheathed for the moment, are waiting for her to fail.
The real test
will not be her performance against Alex
Salmond; I doubt she will win that one, but
the Local Elections next year.
Its hard enough
for the Tories in Scotland
and the by next year it’s a stick-on that the Coalition will have scuppered any
chances she has of increasing her Party’s standing. Doing as well as her
predecessor might be the best she can manage. Whether that will be good enough
remains to be seen. But she will have to do a wee bit more that parrot David
Cameron to achieve even that.
And if the Tories
do even worse will the knives be drawn?
If there is an
iota of realism left in their ranks, perhaps not. But she will come under
increasing pressure to change the Party north of the border. An internal review
of what went wrong, again, is not going to do her or the Tories any favours in
the run up to the “big vote”. And in the long run won’t change a thing.
We wish Ms
Davidson well in her career and hope she’s
still there for the referendum.
Although what it
takes to lead the rump of Scottish politics, other than an impossible optimism,
might well be the acceptance once and for all that the Tories are a spent force.
